Although the recent UFC on FX shows did not go according to plan, considering that Melvin Guillard was taken off the card due to Jamie Varner’s inability to hold down his lunch and I went with George Sots not knowing that he had been knocked out while filming TUF. That being said, I am still up more than I am down, and that’s really all you can ask for in the MMA betting game. Plus, I am ripe for a big bounceback, and bounce back I shall with your unofficial UFC 155 betting guide.
Remember, I am not merely picking who I think is going to win; rather, I am scouring the odds to find the best betting value. Any schmuck can tell you that Anderson Silva is going to beat Stephan Bonnar. But only this schmuck can find you some value in the lines to earn you some money to pay off your Christmas credit card bills.
Melvin Guillard wins inside distance: +160
For all of the reasons I liked Guillard to win a couple of weeks ago, I still like him to win now. I just think he will be able to overwhelm Varner and get a finish as the “good Melvin” we have seen many times. With UFC 155 being a big pay per view, the sportsbooks have more props available than what were out there for the initial FX fight scheduled between these two. I will take advantage and get better odds by betting on a Guillard finish, as opposed to a mere win. If Melvin is going to get it done, I think it’s going to be because he knocked Varner silly.
Pickett/Wineland goes three round distance: -140
This is one of those “good feeling” bets. Both Pickett and Wineland are tough guys, and the fight should be an entertaining scrap. Additionally, both guys are tough to finish and have fought through many tough circumstances against other tough opponents. As a result, I think this one will go the full 15 en route to a decision. I like playing fights like this, because it gives me a chance to sit back, make money, and enjoy an exciting fight without having to irrationally cheer for a particular fighter I may or may not even like.
Tim Boetsch wins by three round decision: +246
This is why I love prop bets in MMA. The actual fight line for Boetsch/Costa Philippou is even, with both getting -110, and the over/under for the fight is making a three round decision a strong favorite at -245. Yet, the prop bet for a three-round Boetsch decision win gives you +246 and a chance to more than triple your money. I can’t explain the asymmetry, but I am more than willing to take advantage of it. While I don’t think this fight will be up for any fight of the year awards, I can definitely see Boetsch earning a very workman-like decision that focuses on his strength and wrestling. All in all, these increased odds are way too good to pass up and are definitely the value play of the night.
And yes, this does mean I am staying away from the main event in my featured plays. I just don’t know if Cain Velasquez is going to be able to take JDS down and pound him out. If he isn’t, or he expects to have to eat a couple of shots before doing so, I don’t see how he’s going to win. But if he can get the take-downs, I think we are going to see a new champion. Gun to my head I take Velasquez and the plus +170. But do so at your own risk, and don’t blame me if it doesn’t work out. Though please give me all of the credit in case it does work out.