For gamblers, there is good and bad in the fact that the UFC is running events on free TV on back to back nights this weekend. On the bright side, there are a ton of fights that are generally going to feature a lot of up-and-coming fighters that the non-die hard fan might not know a lot about. On the other hand, fights with such up-and-comers generally don’t get the same attention from sports books as bigger fights, so there are less likely to be prop bets for all of the fights on the card.
Both are true this weekend with UFC on FX on Friday and The Ultimate Fighter Finale on Saturday. Although there aren’t a ton of prop bets out there, the sheer volume of fights presents some juicy possibilities for money-making. With that in mind, here is your UFC betting guide for both events!
But first, the usual disclaimer. If betting is illegal where you are, or you are a compulsive addict, please leave this page now and find some other great content on the blog to browse. Don’t let gambling ruin someone’s Christmas!
Dustin Poirier to Win: -260
Poirier won his first four fights in the octagon and seemed to be on the fast track to a title shot against Jose Aldo. He probably would have gotten that shot had he not been defeated by the Korean Zombie back in May. Now he looks to bounce back against Jonathan Brookins, the former TUF winner who has gone 2-2 in the UFC. Brookins’ losses to Aldo, Erik Koch and Charles Oliviera tell me more than any win on his resume, and I just don’t see anywhere that he has an advantage in this one. Poirier should have a considerable speed and striking advantage. I don’t think Brookins can get a take down and, even if he can, I don’t really think he can do much damage with it. All of that is why I would be willing to make a play on these otherwise less-than-appealing odds. Might be wiser to parlay this one with some of the other match-ups on this list.
Melvin Guillard to Win: -110
This one should be the same old plot for Guillard: the fight will come down to whether he can land one of his trademark haymakers before he makes a mistake that costs him the fight. Against Jamie Varner I think he will. Guillard had won five in a row prior to dropping two out of his last three, and I think this fight sets him up to get back on track. Unlike Cowboy Cerrone and Joe Lauzon, Varner will have to come inside if he wants to do any damage to Guillard. As we have seen time and time again, that is not a good idea. That is why I think Guillard is a good value at coin-flip odds, as it seems more likely than not he will be able to turn out Varner’s lights.
George Sotiropoulos to Win Inside the Distance: +261
Sotiropoulos meets Ross Pearson in the coach vs. coach match at the UK/Australian TUF Finale. Pearson is a tough guy, with decent all around skills. The problem is, he really doesn’t excel at any one particular thing, and that has gotten him in trouble in past fights against better talent. I think Sotiropoulos will have the ability to get Pearson to the ground and then use his anaconda-like ground game to move to a dominant position and get the submission win. I think people forget how good George really is on the ground. The odds on just Sotiropoulos winning are about a coin flip, but the fact that this is a five-round fight leads me to believe that he will be able to get a finish sometime within the 25 minutes. Considering this, the ability to almost triple potential winnings with the prop is too good to pass up.
Beltran/Pokrajac Goes Three-Round Distance : -195
This is my least comfortable play on the board over these two shows, but I have a hunch. Pokrajac and Beltran are two tough guys, who may very well decide to slug it out. If they do that, there is a good chance that one of them is going to be able to get a finish. That being said, I think both of them have good enough chins to get through the initial barrages. If that happens, I could see both of them tiring out a bit, and finding themselves in a battle of clinching and grabbing as the fight wears on. If that happens, I think we can get through the full 15 without a finish and get a win on this prop.