August 11, 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Benson Henderson (right) fights Frankie Edgar (left) during UFC 150 at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

UFC Gambling Guide: UFC on Fox 5

August 11, 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Benson Henderson poses for a picture after defeating Frankie Edgar (not pictured) during UFC 150 at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

As we move towards another UFC fight weekend, it’s time for another reckless gambling guide for all of you to follow. Like I always say, I am not merely picking winners, but looking for value on the card where we can make some money because the potential reward far outweighs the risk.

With that in mind, here is the usual disclaimer. If you are in a place where gambling on sports is illegal, or if you have some kind of uncontrollable reckless gambling addiction, please stop reading this page and enjoy some of the other fine content on Doc Octagon. I don’t want the money you would likely make on these bets fueling an illegal addiction or keeping you from buying Christmas presents for your wife/girlfriend/mom.

Benson Henderson Wins by 5-Round Decision: +129.

Although it makes me nervous saying this, the result here almost seems like free money. It’s at the point where I would have sworn that the line on a Bendo decision win would be at least -200 before I saw it. +129 is out of this world. Henderson has won five in a row, all by decision. Diaz has lost five times in his UFC career, all by decision. Beyond that, Henderson compares well with the other fighters that have gotten those decision wins over Diaz, Gray Maynard, Rory MacDonald, Dong Hyun Kim, Clay Guida, and Joe Stevenson, in that all can use grappling-based attacks to neutralize Nate’s striking. I see things being no different Saturday night. Although Diaz is sure to talk trash and try to induce a striking war, Henderson is too disciplined, and should retain his title after 25 minutes of action.

Dennis Siver to Win: -300

Listen, I hate seeing odds this fruitless and nonetheless playing the fight. However, this one seems like too sure of a bet to pass up. As a result, I will probably parlay it with one of the other fights on this list to make it more worth the time. I just don’t see how Nam can win this fight, as he has had his most success closing the distance and landing flurries of body shots and other short-range strikes. Siver, on the other hand, is built like a truck and specializes in keeping the distance with his vast array of punishing kicks. Nam is going to have a terrible time trying to close the distance to beat the German. I don’t know for sure if Siver will be able to get a finish, but I would call it the lock of the night that he gets the win.

Mike Swick to Win: -155

I don’t love betting fights like this, no matter how sure the result may seem. Any time you have two guys willing to slug it out, just about anything can happen. Hopefully here, Swick will not fall into that trap to make this a slugfest, and will use superior, well-rounded skills to take care of Brown. Although Brown has bounced back with three wins in a row, the fact remains that he has lost eight fights by submission during his career. That is where I think Swick can finish this with a good old fashioned Swick’otene. Assuming that Swick is past the “octagon jitters” that impacted him in the beginning of his last fight, I am pretty sure that he can get things done here.

Tags: B.J. Penn Benson Henderson Gambling Mma Nate Diaz Rory MacDonald Shogun Rua UFC ON FOX

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