After compiling a 3-1 record for UFC 154, and calling the blowout wins for Johny Hendricks and Georges St. Pierre, there should be no doubting the efficacy of using MMA math to predict UFC winners. It’s now time to put show off the theory once again with some UFC on Fox predictions for this Saturday night’s stacked main card.
Remember, MMA math is an age-old formula that is designed to compare fighters and assess who has the advantage in a fight. At first glance it seems simple enough: if Fighter A beat Fighter B, and Fighter B beat Fighter C, then Fighter A will definitely beat fighter C. However, rest assured that this is the product of many complex algorithms and the like. Let’s put it to work!
Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown
This fight has potential to be one of the barnburniest fights of the year, as I have little doubt that these two will come out swinging until one of them connects and the other goes down. I am literally giddy to see it.
- Mike Swick beat Joe Riggs at UFC 60
- Joe Riggs beat Joe Doerkson at UFC 49
- Joe Doerkson beat Chris Leben at Freestyle Fighting Championships 9
- Chris Leben beat Aaron Simpson at the TUF Finale for Team Liddell vs. Team Ortiz
- Aaron Simpson beat Brad Tavares at UFC 132
- Brad Tavares beat Seth Baczynski at the TUF 11 Finale
- Seth Baczynski beat Matt Brown at UFC 139
Projected Winner: Mike Swick
Shogun Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Shogun is tough to beat in the MMA math game because he has been so good at avenging losses. While it is debatable the impact this should have on the formulas, it feels kind of dirty holding a loss against someone when it was later avenged. Gustafsson is equally as formidable in this game, however, having compiled a 14-1 career record on his rise towards light heavyweight contention. There is definitely a way for Shogun to win through Lyoto Machida, but the fact remains that Machida also beat Shogun. On the other hand, there is a way to a Gustafsson win with a little more certainty.
- Alexander Gustafsson beat Matt Hamill at UFC 133
- Matt Hamill beat Jon Jones at the TUF 10 Finale
- Jon Jones beat Shogun Rua at UFC 128
Projected Winner: Alexander Gustafsson
B.J. Penn vs. Rory MacDonald
For a few reasons, this is the toughest fight to call on the UFC on Fox 5 main card. First, MacDonald has a relatively small sample size of MMA opponents, with only 14 professional fights and many coming in smaller Canadian shows. Second, B.J. has fought between multiple weight classes, as opposed to having a full career of welterweight bouts to look to. This shows in the result, as the two paths leading to a MacDonald win lack a lot of conviction, as they involve either Jens Pulver (who B.J. avenged) or Jon Fitch (who B.J. drew). That being said, the math is the math:
- Rory MacDonald beat Nate Diaz at UFC 129
- Nate Diaz beat Manny Gamburyan at the TUF 5 Finale
- Manny Gamburyan beat Leonard Garcia at WEC 44
- Leonard Garcia beat Jens Pulver at WEC 36
- Jens Pulver beat B.J. Penn at UFC 35
Projected Winner: Rory MacDonald
UFC Lightweight Title Fight: Benson Henderson (c) vs. Nate Diaz
And then the main event, a title fight that is very likely to have five rounds of continuous action. Will Nate finally bring UFC gold to the Diaz family, or will Henderson remain undefeated inside the octagon? It should be a great showcase fight for the network television audience. However, the math seems to suggest that it will be a very daunting task for Diaz to come out on top, as there are multiple paths to a big Henderson win. Here is the most clear and obvious:
- Benson Henderson beat Clay Guida at UFC on Fox 1
- Clay Guida beat Nate Diaz at UFC 94
Projected Winner: Benson Henderson
Take those picks to the bank. Literally, print this out and walk in to the bank with it. Reckless betting guide coming later this week!