Oct. 29, 2011; Las Vegas, NV, USA; UFC fighter Georges St-Pierre sits cageside during UFC 137 at the Mandalay Bay event center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

UFC 154 Predictions: MMA Math Style


July 11, 2012; San Jose, CA, USA; Francis Carmont (right) defeats Karlos Vemola (left) in the middleweight bout of the UFC on Fuel TV at HP Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

As we head towards this Saturday night, everyone and their uncle will be posting UFC 154 predictions. Generally, these n00bs will do things like analyze video footage and assess match-ups and styles when coming up with who they think will win. But if you have seen Moneyball and know anything about sports, you are aware that the sports world is increasing turning to math and algorithms to predict results. Case in point, Miguel Cabrera looked like baseball’s best hitter this season, leading the American League in batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. Notwithstanding this, there is a large contingent of watchers that believe Mike Trout had a better season. Why? Because complex mathematical formulas say so.

With this in mind, I have decided to try out an algorithm that can predict who will win MMA fights. In simplest terms, if A is better than B, and B is better than C, than A will beat C. Here is what happens when applied for main card UFC 154 predictions:

Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza.

I know what you’re thinking, Hominick has already beaten Garza, so that should immediately end the inquiry. Not so fast, as that would be the easy way out. Especially when there is a clear formula to follow.

  • Hominick beat George Roop at UFC Fight for the Troops 2
  • Roop beat The Korean Zombie at WEC 51
  • The Korean Zombie beat Dustin Poirer at UFC on Fuel TV 2
  • Poirer beat Garza at UFC on Fox 1

Predicted Winner: Mark Hominick

Constantinos Philippou vs. Nick Ring.

This is a tough one for the math to work out, because both guys have such great records. In fact, both have common UFC wins over Court McGee and Riki Fukuda. The math does not fail, however, and we can come up with a conclusion.

  • Ring beat Bill Mahood at Roadhouse Rumble 5
  • Mahood beat Jason MacDonald at MFC 7
  • MacDonald beat Joe Doerksen at UFC 83
  • Doerksen beat Patrick Cote at UFC 52
  • Cote beat Scott Smith at UFC 67
  • Smith beat Cung Le at Strikeforce: Evolution
  • Le beat Rich Franklin at UFC on Fuel TV 6
  • Franklin beat Nate Quarry at UFC 56
  • Quarry beat Tim Credeur at UFC Fight Night
  • Credeur beat Nick Catone at UFC Fight Night
  • Catone beat Philippou at UFC 128

Predicted Winner: Nick Ring

Tom Lawlor vs. Francis Carmont.

Without a doubt, if whoever has the most creative entrance was declared the winner, Lawlor would be an overwhelming favorite. That is not mathematical, however, and such a prediction would lead to an apparently incorrect result.

  •  Carmont beat Jason Day at Slammer in the Hammer (not making that up)
  • Day beat Alan Belcher at UFC 83
  • Belcher beat Jason MacDonald at UFC Fight Night
  • MacDonald beat Joe Doerksen at UFC 83
  • Doerksen beat Lawlor at UFC 113

Predicted Winner: Francis Carmont

Johny Hendricks vs. Martin Kampmann.

Popular thinking says the winner of this fight will establish himself as the number one contender for the welterweight title, and will earn a shot against the winner of GSP-Condit. While many think this will be a toss up, the math seems to point to a blowout win.

  • Hendricks beat Jon Fitch at UFC 141
  • Fitch beat Diego Sanchez at UFC 76
  • Sanchez beat Kampmann at UFC Live

Predicted Winner: Johny Hendricks

Georges St. Pierre vs. Carlos Condit.

And then the main event. The problem for anyone trying to take GSP’s title is that he has only lost twice in his career, making the math harder for his opponent than a Republican trying to win the electoral college without Ohio. It’s no different in this one, as there are multiple paths for Condit to lose and lose big. In fact, the MMA math would suggest an elusive finish.

  • St. Pierre beat Jake Shields at UFC 129
  • Shields beat Condit at Rumble on the Rock 9

Predicted Winner: Georges St. Pierre

Tags: Carlos Condit GSP UFC 154 UFC Predictions

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