This Saturday morning, the UFC presents its 6th edition of UFC on Fuel TV, headlined by a middleweight bout between Rich Franklin and Cung Le. This morning I present to you the UFC gambling guide for the event.
This is not your basic prediction post, or even your basic gambling post. I have no time to just merely pick who I think will win, because it doesn’t do anyone any good to see a list of favorites that I think will come in. As a result, don’t expect to see me recommend winning next to nothing with a Rich Franklin -335 flat-bet layup. This is a “reckless” UFC gambling guide for a reason.
With that in mind, if you are in a place where gambling on sports is illegal, or if you have some kind of uncontrollable reckless gambling addiction, please stop reading this page and enjoy some of the other fine content on Doc Octagon. Getting arrested or losing your family for gambling on a fight at 9 AM on a Saturday is pretty much the definition of rock bottom, and I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.
1. Rich Franklin winning by 5-round decision: +679.
When I first went to look at the odds for UFC on Fuel TV 6 I assumed that Franklin winning by decision would have decent value, but I had no idea it would be considered this much of a long shot. I get why the fight ending in some other fashion is favored, because there is a good chance that Cung Le’s cardio issues will allow Franklin to finish him off within five rounds. At the same time, Le has more than a puncher’s chance to hit one of his trademark kicks and knock Franklin into unconsciousness.
That being said, having the ability to make a Franklin decision win net you more than six times your bet is criminal. First, if the fight goes the full five rounds, it is difficult to see Le getting the nod due to Franklin’s more diverse skill set and likely ability to rough Le up on the inside. Second, four of Franklin’s last six fights have gone the distance, with the lone exceptions being when his fist met Chuck Liddell’s unfortunately-diminished jaw, and when the back of his head ran into the fast hands of Vitor Belfort. Considering everything, +679 for a Franklin decision is too good not to put something on.
Dong Hyun Kim winning by 3-round decision: -130.
Although the odds are not as attractive as with Franklin, Kim winning on the judges’ scorecards seems but a foregone conclusion. For starters, if Kim is going to win, it’s almost certain to be by decision. Kim’s generally boring style has led to five of his six UFC wins being by decision. It’s easy to see him repeatedly throwing opponent Paulo Thiago to the ground and basically lying on him for the better part of 15 mintues. In addition, Thiago has lost three out of four fights and looked generally helpless against the top games employed by Jon Fitch and Diego Sanchez.
Stanislav Nedkov to win: +290.
At first glance, it seems like Thiago Silva should easily steamroll the lesser-known Nedkov, and the odds reflect this. Silva has fought the best the UFC has to offer in opponents like Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida, while Nedkov has beat Luiz Cane, some veteran journeymen, and a lot of unknown Eastern Europeans whose names end with the letter v. That being said, Silva has not fought in over year due to an assortment of injuries and a suspension for having fake pee in a drug test. And in his recent fights against Evans and Alexander Gustafsson, Silva’s gas tank has been lacking to say the least. Going on the general rule that someone coming off of a long layoff is likely to struggle, I like Nedkov to win after Silva gets gassed and resorts to throwing sloppy haymakers. The +290 is well worth playing against the slim chance one of those haymakers lands.