Beating Vegas: UFC On Fox 3

Betting on sports is an incredibly stupid thing to do if you actually like to keep your jelly beans.  To continue that thought, if there is one sport that no sane person should ever bet on, its mixed martial arts.  The only thing that is more unpredictable than the winner of  a fight between two men wearing four ounce gloves is the gestation period of a cow (it’s actually pretty predictable, its 285 days.)

Gambling on MMA is stupid, but…. it’s also pretty fun.

Being the egomaniac that I am, I think I can outsmart the odds makers.  I really do enjoy analyzing the fight odds as soon as they come out and seeing if the odds makers make a mistake.  Usually there are three or so underdogs that I feel have a great chance of winning  their fights (most of the time Vegas was right).

So without further ado, I’ll present you degenerate gamblers with three odds I love, and three fights to stay away from at UFC on FOX 3.

3 Odds I Love

Alan Belcher (+230) vs Rousimar Palhares

The hype has gone pretty far with Palhares who has beat his last three opponents, submitting two of them.  The only thing that is more impressive than Palhares’ last victories is his chiseled physique, but he still has yet to beat a quality opponent (top 25).  Palhares has never beaten a  fighter on Belcher’s level, and on the feet Belcher should have a signficant advantage.  Belcher should also be able to sprawl and bawl and pick up the upset over the heel-hooking machine.

Michael Johnson (+210) vs Tony Ferguson

This fight should really be even.  Both fighters are mirror images of each other.  Stout, technical wrestlers with quality striking skills.  Ferguson uses his reach to his advantage while Johnson’s formula to victory on the feet is his speed.  The difference between them is that Ferguson has shown a regression in his last two fights while Johnson has shown a huge progression in his last two.  Johnson has been training with the talented kick boxer, Tyrone Spong and his striking is developing.  I foresee Johnson taking another step talent wise in this fight by beating the odds and defeating the former Ultimate Fighter winner.

Pablo Garza (+150) vs Dennis Bermudez

When I saw Pablo Garza was the underdog in this fight, I had to do a double take.  Bermudez has some skills, especially in the wrestling department, but Garza should be favored here.  He is a giant compared to Bermudez.  Not to mention the advantage Garza has on the feet and off his back on the ground.  Bermudez likes to take down his opponents, and that may be the wrong decision against Garza who possesses slick submissions and may submit Bermudez for the fourth consecutive time in his career.

3 Fights To Stay Away From

Louis Gaudinot (+250) vs John Lineker (-320)

This fight simply has too many unknowns.  Lineker has looked fantastic against unproven competition while Gaudinot has looked terrible against UFC level fighters that also had a severe size advantage on him.  Now the playing field is fare for Gaudinot from a size advantage, but it’s unclear exactly what Lineker is gong to bring to the table.

John Hathaway (-235) vs Pascal Krauss (+185)

This is a scenario of “it depends on which fighter shows up”.  Hathaway looked like a world beater in his victory over Diego Sanchez, but his next two fights left more to be desired.  Krauss on the other hand had an impressive UFC debut against Mark Scanlon at UFC 122, but that was his last fight which seemed as thought it took place decades ago.  The ring rust is a huge concern for Krauss.  Combine that with the questions regarding John Hathaway, and you get a fight you should absolutely avoid.

Jim Miller (-240) vs Nate Diaz (+190)

Miller has the wrestling ability to take down Diaz repeatedly, but Diaz has the gas tank to dominate the championship rounds.  Diaz looked like the best fighter on the planet against Donald Cerrone in his last fight, but that was also due to Cerrone fighting with a terrible game plan.   Miller finished Melvin Guillard in his last fight, but prior to that he looked less than stellar.  Both men match up very well from a fight quality standpoint, but it’s just to unpredictable as it regards to a potential victor.  Stay away from this one.

Tags: Gambling UFC MMA Odds Underdog Picks Predictions

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